Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 24.392498 28.959369 34.658430 42.493250 53.331624 6.838824e+01 92.114835
2024-12-15 19.369676 24.600652 31.896218 43.429206 62.605683 9.664670e+01 173.503615
2024-12-22 15.996491 21.082990 28.639418 41.645948 66.102589 1.184231e+02 284.134933
2024-12-29 14.081305 19.109148 26.968951 41.509395 72.083205 1.511438e+02 537.366345
2025-01-05 12.288098 16.967594 24.511431 39.111827 72.167199 1.703116e+02 890.312166
2025-01-12 10.774492 15.038852 22.047498 36.010998 69.219580 1.780463e+02 1329.442413
2025-01-19 9.650588 13.596371 20.191517 33.673147 67.206943 1.880814e+02 2193.582601
2025-01-26 9.851737 14.322689 22.238487 39.961899 92.177908 3.778298e+02 NaN
2025-02-02 9.563258 14.175637 22.643413 42.775806 109.763739 6.455868e+02 NaN
2025-02-09 8.782203 13.082073 21.049766 40.293539 106.498338 7.042490e+02 NaN
2025-02-16 8.488367 12.826244 21.085757 41.992327 121.772212 1.243595e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 8.059059 12.281743 20.454571 41.748385 128.652664 1.887550e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 7.644583 11.757327 19.859744 41.654233 137.757003 3.490109e+03 NaN
2025-03-09 7.336021 11.404849 19.590872 42.476677 153.852410 1.169749e+04 NaN
2025-03-16 6.886203 10.746046 18.569406 40.746181 152.720423 2.273980e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 6.585702 10.350428 18.088769 40.613709 162.939997 7.569178e+05 NaN
2025-03-30 6.176527 9.716093 17.004603 38.292415 155.012569 5.130515e+06 NaN
2025-04-06 5.755010 9.035979 15.766860 35.286872 140.201233 2.338253e+05 NaN
2025-04-13 5.407411 8.484190 14.787331 33.018245 130.279834 1.316834e+05 NaN
2025-04-20 5.579924 8.958106 16.203135 39.115691 198.997993 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.532858 8.990124 16.588011 41.838903 250.690339 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.246255 8.516517 15.689828 39.436802 233.116093 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.163054 8.455536 15.808784 41.080981 278.074846 NaN NaN